The Bush team demonised them, and they demonised the Bush team.

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When I reported from Beirut in the 1970s and 1980s, I covered coups and wars. I never once stayed up late waiting for an election result. Elections in the Arab world were a joke – literally. They used to tell this story about Syria’s President, Hafez Assad. After a Syrian election, an aide came in and told Assad: “Mr President, you won 99.8 per cent of the votes. It means that only two-tenths of one per cent of Syrians didn’t vote for you. What more could ask for?” Assad answered: “Their names!” Lebanese, by contrast, just waited up all night for their election results – no one knew what they’d be.

Third, the Bush team opened a hole in the wall of Arab autocracy but did a poor job following through. In the vacuum, the parties most organised to seize power were the Islamists – Hezbollah in Lebanon; pro-al-Qaida forces among Iraqi Sunnis, and the pro-Iranian Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and Mahdi Army among Iraqi Shiites; the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan; Hamas in Gaza. Fortunately, these Islamist groups overplayed their hand by imposing religious lifestyles or by dragging their societies into confrontations the people didn’t want. This alienated and frightened secular, mainstream Arabs and Muslims and has triggered an “awakening” backlash among moderates from Lebanon to Pakistan to Iran. The New York Times’ Robert Mackey reported that in Tehran “chants of ‘Death to America”’ at rallies for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last week were answered by chants of “Death to the Taliban – in Kabul and Tehran” at a rally for his opponent, Mir Hussein Moussavi.

Finally, along came President Barack Hussein Obama. Arab and Muslim regimes found it very useful to run against George W Bush. The Bush team demonised them, and they demonised the Bush team. Autocratic regimes, like Iran’s, drew energy and legitimacy from that confrontation, and it made it very easy for them to discredit anyone associated with America. Obama’s soft power has defused a lot of that. As a result, “pro-American” is not such an insult anymore.

I don’t know how all this shakes out; the forces against change in this region are very powerful – see Iran – and ruthless. But for the first time in a long time, the forces for decency, democracy and pluralism have a little wind at their backs. Good for them.


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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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