Does polling poll prosperity?

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Election is, at last, over in Ukraine - geopolitically the most important Eurasian country. The country’s pro-West parties hovered for victory keeping its communist rivals aside by decent margin. Though this has marked a striking comeback for Victor Yushchenko and reformist Yulia Tymoshenko of the Orange Revolution fame, it is yet to make sure that political stability would remain in Ukraine. The pro-West Orange coalition has secured an impregnable lead of 45%. This victory of the pro-Western parties is the first of its kind in the aftermath of the Orange Revolution led by Yushchenko. For the first time, this has raised many hopes for prosperity & tranquility in independent Ukraine after 1991. Unfortunately, country has pretty less time to rejoice as this has become a new source of friction with Russia. For Russia foreign policy has always meant a literal give & take. Gazprom has warned to disconnect gas supplies if Ukraine fails to pay debt. It is an implied threat to all pro-democratic party winners to renounce the desire of being in government. Unluckily, the proclamation of independence, the adoption of a new state symbol, the establishment of armed forces amount little for Ukraine if Russia controls access to fuel. Ukraine for that matter is completely dependent on Russia on energy issues. It consumes over 30 million tonnes of petroleum yearly while it produces merely four million & rest is imported.

Though, Ukraine is carving to join the EU & NATO in order to prove its democratic & free market credentials, it has few options towards proceeding in that direction. Even though Orange Revolution was a major setback for Russia’s foreign policy, it has not ensured reduction of Russia’s influence in their internal matters. And perhaps would not until Ukraine become self sufficient in energy issues or finds a new supplier.


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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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