WHY NUMBERS NUMB?

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SUTANU GURU ON HOW AND WHY NUMBERS MISLEAD AND MISINFORM

Numbers can be exhilarating; they can also be exasperating. Numbers can make your chest swell with insolent pride; they can also make your heart seethe with impotent rage. It all depends on the numbers that you prefer to look at; the kind of numbers that appeal to you and the power of the spin doctors to transform moments of embarrassment and shame into heady celebrations of ‘arrival’ on the global stage. Numbers often tell a heart warming story. They also ensure that there is, more often than not, a savage twist in the tale.

Just take one example. If you go by the numbers constantly trotted out by the honourable Shivraj Patil who handles the Union Home Ministry, acts of violence and terror have actually come down drastically during the UPA regime as compared to the previous NDA regime. If numbers were all that made you feel safe and secure, there would be no problems at all. But even a school kid knows that the ‘numbers’ trotted out by the Minister are a farcical attempt at black humour. Not only have terror attacks by extremist Jehadis grown and become more brazen; India is now witness to the possible involvement of some right wing Hindutva outfits in terror attacks in a grotesque display of “me too” obscurantism.

Numbers can also make things look far worse than they actually are. If you go by the manner in which the Sensex is in a seemingly endless free fall, it would appear as if the India growth story is well and truly over and that the dark days are again upon us. The same numbers that were dished out just a few months ago to herald the emergence of India as a Superpower are now being bandied about to showcase how India is a collapsing power. Sure, when something tumbles from 21,000 to about 8,000, it is easy to take a very pessimistic view. But then think soberly and you will realise that India is not heading for economic apocalypse. It is childish and dangerous to call a drop in GDP growth rate from 9% per annum to 7% as a recession, or even worse, a depression. Sure, many Indians will suffer the aftermath of this global economic meltdown. But wait just a few years when things are back in shape and you will be laughing at how all of us overreacted.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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